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US Retail Sales Slump - Concerns Over Slowing Consumption - Stock Market Decline US July retail sales fell 0.6% from the previous month, missing market expectations. Concerns about an economic slowdown emerged due to weak consumption indicators and a decline in consumer sentiment, leading all three major US stock indices to close lower: Dow (-0.20%), S&P 500 (-0.17%), and Nasdaq (-0.28%). Fed's September Rate Decision Expected to Be on Hold, Treasury Yields Mixed Amid signs of slowing consumption, expectations are leaning towards the US Federal Reserve (Fed) holding interest rates steady at its September FOMC meeting rather than raising them. In the bond market, a combination of receding hopes for a soft economic landing and a wait-and-see approach to monetary policy resulted in mixed 10-year Treasury yields. Deepening Divergence in Big Tech and Semiconductor Stocks Concerns over conservative earnings forecasts from major semiconductor equipment manufacturers and a slowdown in IT consumer demand led to volatility in related tech stocks. Market funds are consolidating into core blue-chip stocks with proven earnings stability, intensifying the stock-specific divergence within the tech sector.

1944: The Bretton Woods System (The US Dollar's Global Dominance) Around the end of World War II, in 1944, representatives from 44 countries gathered in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, USA, to establish a new global financial order. The goal was to rebuild the war-torn world economy and create a stable trading system. The core of this was the introduction of the 'gold-exchange standard,' which pegged the US dollar to gold (1 ounce of gold = $35) and linked other countries' currencies to the dollar. This established the US dollar as the sole **Key Currency** serving as the standard for global transactions, solidifying the US-centered economic hegemony. Furthermore, to effectively maintain this system and support post-war reconstruction and foreign exchange crises in various countries, the **International Monetary Fund (IMF)** and the **World Bank (IBRD)** were established. The framework of the global financial and trade system we use today was created at this very time.

Export Company Earnings Announcements Conclude, Sector Differentiation As major listed companies' Q2 earnings announcements approach their final stages, strong performance has been confirmed in key export sectors like semiconductors and shipbuilding. Conversely, sectors with a high proportion of domestic sales showed relative weakness. Won/Dollar Exchange Rate Stabilizes Downward in the Late 1,370s Fueled by recovering global risk appetite due to expectations of a US economic soft landing and stabilizing international oil prices, the won/dollar exchange rate eased upward pressure, closing transactions in the late 1,370s. Foreign Inflows Driven by Robust Semiconductor Exports The sustained net buying trend by foreign investors in leading domestic semiconductor stocks, driven by rising memory prices and continued demand for AI-related High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), is supporting the stock market's lower bound. Financial Authorities Strengthen Household Loan Quota Management To curb the increase in mortgage lending by commercial banks, financial authorities are intensifying household debt management through measures like applying stress DSR and raising additional interest rates, which is acting as a variable for domestic demand recovery.

Global Economic Issues Soft Landing Hopes Rise Amid Strong US Retail Sales July's US retail sales exceeded market expectations, easing concerns about an economic recession. Strong consumption data offset worries about employment indicators, leading all three major New York stock indices to close higher. Rising US Treasury Yields and Divergence in Tech Stocks As the possibility of a soft economic landing increased, the yield on 10-year US Treasury notes rebounded. With the burden of high interest rates persisting, a divergence trend emerged within highly valued tech stocks, favoring core companies based on their earnings. International Oil Prices Decline as Geopolitical Risks Subside International oil prices turned downward as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East showed signs of easing and were compounded by news of increasing US crude oil inventories. Prices fell to the late $70s per barrel. Big Tech AI CAPEX and Focus on Profitability Verification Amid continued announcements from big tech companies about expanding AI capital expenditures, the market is focusing on whether these investments will lead to actual improvements in earnings and margins, rather than just the scale of investment.

1929: The Great Depression in the US Beginning with the Wall Street Crash of October 1929, the Great Depression was the most severe global economic crisis in human history. Following World War I, accumulated overproduction and excessive financial speculation, centered in the US, exploded, leading to the bankruptcy of numerous banks and businesses. Unemployment in the US soared to 25%. The repercussions spread to Europe and the rest of the world, causing global trade volume to plummet by over 60% and resulting in widespread chaos. The Great Depression exposed the fatal limitations of the laissez-faire approach of classical economics, which believed that "everything left to the market would self-adjust." In response, US President Franklin D. Roosevelt implemented the "New Deal" policy, creating jobs through large-scale public works projects like road and bridge construction. Ultimately, the Great Depression became the pivotal event that led to the birth of "managed capitalism," where governments actively intervene in the market to regulate the economy and build social safety nets.

Continued Strong Semiconductor Exports and Inflow of Major Stock Demand Driven by rising memory prices and demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) for AI servers, export growth centered on the semiconductor sector and foreign buying are continuing. USD/KRW Exchange Rate Limited Around 1,380 Won As the dollar's strength has somewhat eased, the USD/KRW exchange rate has stopped its sharp rise and is continuing a cautious trend in the low 1,380s. Bank of Korea Maintains Cautious Stance on Monetary Easing Timing Considering the government and financial authorities' household debt management policy and upward risks to inflation, the Bank of Korea is maintaining a cautious stance on the timing of its base rate cut.

August 14, 2026 Global Economic Issues US Stocks Flat as July CPI Meets Expectations While the US July Consumer Price Index (CPI) met market expectations, easing inflation concerns, the New York Stock Exchange closed mixed in a tight range as investors took profits. International Oil Prices Ease Supply Concerns and Slow Down Rally With easing geopolitical risks in the Middle East and news of increased US crude oil inventories, the sharp rise in international oil prices has temporarily subsided, entering a period of consolidation. Big Tech Enters Profitability Verification Phase for AI Investments Following announcements of increased AI CAPEX spending by major tech companies, the market is focusing on actual profit generation and margin improvement rather than just the scale of investment.

Early August Exports Show Strength... Driven by Semiconductors and Passenger Cars According to the Korea Customs Service, exports from August 1st to 10th continued to increase year-on-year, with particularly strong performance in memory semiconductors and high-end passenger car exports. Upward Pressure on Exchange Rate Around 1,380 Won and Monitoring by Foreign Exchange Authorities In line with the rebound in US Treasury yields and the trend of a strengthening dollar, the won/dollar exchange rate is facing upward pressure around the 1,380 won level. Commercial Banks Strengthen Household Loan Management and Signal Interest Rate Hikes To curb the growth of household debt, primarily driven by mortgage loans, major commercial banks are increasing their spread rates and raising the bar for lending.

August 13, 2026 1. Global Economic Issues Wait-and-see attitude deepens ahead of US July CPI release Major New York stock market indices showed mixed trends, with a deepening wait-and-see attitude ahead of the release of the July Consumer Price Index (CPI), which will gauge the direction of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate cuts. Increased volatility in international oil prices and strength in energy stocks Brent crude oil surpassed the $80 per barrel mark, showing an upward trend due to ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East and supply concerns. Continued momentum in AI infrastructure and power grid related stocks With the confirmation of increased CAPEX (capital expenditures) by Big Tech companies in the second quarter, orders on hand for power equipment for data centers and manufacturers of energy transformers reached all-time highs.

If it drops to the 1300s, should I jump in thinking 'now or never'?