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🗂​US 30-Year Treasury Yield Surges, Semiconductor & Tech Stocks Plunge The US 30-year Treasury yield surpassed 5.3% intraday, hitting its highest level since 2007. As the long-term yield tantrum resurfaced, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, burdened by high valuations, plunged 5.4%, and selling pressure extended across major tech stocks. 🗂​International Oil Prices (Brent Crude) Break $90 Amid Re-escalating Middle East Tensions Middle East geopolitical risks related to the Strait of Hormuz have intensified again, pushing Brent crude past $90 per barrel. The oil price surge is directly pressuring global economic resilience amid renewed inflation concerns. 🗂​Rate Hike Debate for Yen Defense Surges as Japan's Q2 GDP Misses Expectations Japan's Q2 GDP growth came in at an annualized 1.1%, significantly below market expectations of 2.2%. Despite sluggish domestic demand, the possibility of an early September rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to curb yen weakness and control inflation is growing, increasing volatility in Asian financial markets.

🗂​Key Employment Shift: According to Leaders Index analysis, new hiring by large corporations has shrunk by 15.3%, with the proportion of employees aged 50+ (18.4%) surpassing those under 30 (18.3%) for the first time. 🗂​Major Detailed Indicators: ​Sharp Decline in Youth Employment: The number of employees under 30 decreased by 13.8%, and the proportion of youth in new hires dropped from 56.4% to 51.1%. 🗂​Industry Variations: Sectors focused on domestic consumption, such as retail (31.8%), food and beverage (30.6%), and telecommunications, showed a high proportion of older workers. 🗂​Company Disparities: While Hyundai Motor saw a 65.1% decrease in new youth hires, advanced sectors like semiconductors and biotech, including SK Hynix and Samsung Biologics, significantly increased their youth recruitment. 🗂​Implications: The shrinking domestic market and the shift to rolling hiring practices are narrowing job opportunities for young people, intensifying the aging trend in the employment structure of large corporations.

🗂​Unprecedented Deposit Decrease: In the first half of this year, savings balances in credit unions, mutual finance companies, and agricultural/fishery cooperatives decreased by 27.8198 trillion won. This is the first outflow recorded on a semi-annual basis since statistics were compiled in 1993. 🗂​Background and Causes: Stock Market Movement and Unfavorable Interest Rates: Funds moved to the booming stock market, and they were outcompeted by institutions like savings banks offering around 3% annual interest. Reduced Tax Benefits: The reduction of tax-exempt benefits for high-income members (now taxed at 5%) led to a massive outflow of funds. 🗂​PF Insolvency and Dividend Slump: The rising delinquency rate (4.62%) and operating losses caused a 19.7% decrease in dividends from credit unions, sparking customer anxiety. 🗂​Future Challenges: Amidst stricter regulations on real estate PF loan ratios (within 20%) coming in April next year, regaining trust and digital transformation are urgent tasks.

🗂​Outlook Significantly Upgraded: Moody's has sharply raised its forecast for South Korea's GDP growth this year from 2.5% to 3.5%, a 1.0 percentage point increase. (This is roughly double the figure from February's 1.8%, achieved in just half a year.) 🗂​Key Reasons for Upgrade: Unrivaled Memory Competitiveness: With rising demand for high-performance AI-related semiconductors, there are extremely limited alternative suppliers to South Korean companies (e.g., HBM). 🗂​Semiconductor Supercycle: They predict this semiconductor boom cycle will remain strong until at least mid-2027. Exports and Mega Projects: Moody's highly rated the 51% surge in merchandise exports from January to July this year and the government's key technology projects like AI and data centers. 🗂​Risk Factors: Long-term challenges cited include increased mandatory spending due to an aging population and growing government debt.

Domestic Economic Issues Continued Export Strength in Mid-August, Driven by Semiconductors Exports from August 1st to 15th maintained their year-on-year growth, boosted by robust demand for memory semiconductors and passenger cars. Despite global economic concerns, the visibility of performance in key industries remains steady. Won/Dollar Exchange Rate Enters the 1,360s, Downward Pressure Eases The Won/Dollar exchange rate fell to the late 1,360s due to a weakening US dollar and dollar selling ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting. Reduced volatility in the foreign exchange market is positively impacting foreign investor inflows. Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Decision Approaches with Cautious Sentiment With the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on the 22nd, attention is focusing on the possibility of a base rate freeze due to concerns over rising household debt and housing prices in the Seoul metropolitan area. The Bank of Korea faces a complex decision balancing domestic demand stimulation with household debt management.

Global Economic Issues New York Stocks Mixed Amid Caution Over Fed's Jackson Hole Meeting Market caution has deepened ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting scheduled for the 22nd. Due to uncertainty over the September rate cut size (25bp vs 50bp), major indices closed mixed without a clear direction. Falling US Treasury Yields and Rate Cut Expectations Remain Valid As consumption and inflation indicators showed signs of cooling, the 10-year US Treasury yield slightly declined. The market has already accepted the Fed's pivot in monetary policy as a given and is closely watching Chair Powell's tone. Big Tech AI Profitability Verification and Semiconductor Equipment Stocks Attempt Rebound Ahead of Nvidia's earnings announcement next week, preemptive buying emerged for AI semiconductor and power grid-related stocks. Semiconductor equipment stocks, which saw significant declines last week, also attempted a technical rebound, supporting the downside of tech stocks.

Domestic Economic Issues Defense of Q2 Corporate Earnings and Stock Price Support Due to Export Boom As the export boom in major flagship products such as semiconductors and automobiles continues, the earnings defense capabilities of listed companies are being proven. Despite concerns about a global economic slowdown, foreign capital inflows are continuing, focusing on leading stocks with strong earnings momentum. Attempt to Stabilize USD/KRW Exchange Rate in the Mid-1,370s The upward pressure on the USD/KRW exchange rate has significantly eased due to the slowdown in US dollar strength and the inflow of domestic export settlement funds. The foreign exchange market is watching the Jackson Hole meeting results, showing limited movement in the mid-1,370s. Increase in Mortgage Rates by Commercial Banks and Household Debt Management As financial authorities continue to raise additional interest rates to curb the increase in household debt, it is acting as a burden on the recovery of domestic consumption. On the other hand, banks are maintaining a stance to defend interest income due to the widening spread between deposit and lending rates.

Global Economic Issues Wait-and-see attitude deepens on interest rate path ahead of Fed's Jackson Hole meeting Global financial markets have become more cautious ahead of this week's Jackson Hole meeting and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech. Major New York Stock Exchange indices showed a wait-and-see attitude, closing trading in the consolidation range, driven by the desire to find hints about the September rate cut. Inflationary pressure eases amid stable US Producer Price Index (PPI) Following the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Producer Price Index (PPI) also met expectations, confirming a trend of downward stabilization in inflation. Stable wholesale prices support the Fed's rationale for easing monetary policy and act as a factor limiting volatility in the bond market. Anticipation ahead of Big Tech earnings and improved tech stock supply/demand With earnings reports from major AI leaders like Nvidia for the third quarter approaching, valuation risks are partially easing, leading to renewed fund inflows. Buying sentiment is spreading across AI power infrastructure and the entire semiconductor value chain.

The 1970s marked a significant turning point for the global economy. In 1971, U.S. President Nixon declared the suspension of the convertibility of the dollar into gold, officially collapsing the Bretton Woods system and shifting from a fixed to a floating exchange rate regime. To make matters worse, two Middle Eastern wars in 1973 and 1979 led oil-producing nations to skyrocket crude oil prices several times over in a short period, triggering a global energy crisis (the oil shock). As raw material prices soared, global inflation surged, and corporate activities froze. This resulted in the unprecedented phenomenon of 'stagflation,' where prices rose amidst economic recession. Through this period, countries worldwide began developing alternative energy sources to reduce their reliance on oil, and the industrial landscape was rapidly reshaped, with fuel-efficient Japanese compact cars dominating the global automotive market in the era of high oil prices.

Decrease in Youth Employment in AI-Exposed Sectors and Changes in the Labor Market More than half of the youth employed last month who saw a decrease were concentrated in so-called 'AI-exposed' sectors such as information and communication, and professional, scientific, and technical services. Changes in employment structure due to the acceleration of AI transformation are emerging as a new variable in the youth job market. Easing Upward Pressure on the Won/Dollar Exchange Rate and a Wait-and-See Approach As the global dollar strength has eased due to slowing US consumption, the won/dollar exchange rate has stopped its sharp rise and entered a period of consolidation. The foreign exchange market is showing a trend of easing volatility while closely watching the direction of US monetary policy and oil price movements. Domestic Stock Market Supported at the Bottom Amidst Sectoral Differentiation The domestic stock market is supported at the bottom, driven by the performance momentum of semiconductors and key export sectors, despite global economic variables. However, due to sluggish domestic demand and fund concentration, the trend of differentiation among sectors and stocks is intensifying.