天気と災害の情報共有

When watching the weather forecast, you've probably seen images like this used for typhoon predictions, right? Today, let's study together how to read a typhoon path map, which will also be useful for knowing the typhoon's track and protecting yourself. The blue 'x' mark indicates the current center of the typhoon. The blue line signifies the path the typhoon has taken. And the red, yellow, and white circles and lines around it have the following meanings: 'Storm Area' Red circle. The range where winds of 25m/s or higher are blowing. 'Storm Warning Area' Red outline. The area where there's a possibility of entering the storm area. 'Strong Wind Area' Yellow circle. The range where winds of 15m/s or higher are blowing. 'Probable Track Area' (Forecast Cone) White circle. 70% probability that the center of the typhoon will be within this area. By understanding how to read the path map like this, you should now have a more concrete understanding of the typhoon's track, shouldn't you? By the way, if you focus on the probable track area, you'll notice the circle gets larger as the forecast extends further into the future. This doesn't mean the typhoon itself is growing. It's because the further into the future the prediction goes, the harder it is to pinpoint the center's location, causing the probable track area to expand. Therefore, don't let your guard down just because you're outside the circle's range. I hope this post will be of some help when checking the latest forecast and preparing for a typhoon.

Typhoon No. 25 is strengthening as it moves west near the waters of Chichijima. While yesterday's forecast predicted a direct northward path, it has shifted to a route that bypasses the Ogasawara Islands to the east, as anticipated a few days ago. This change will cause an approximate delay of less than half a day for its arrival in Honshu, with the peak of the rain expected from around 4 PM to dawn. Given that nighttime travel itself could be a dangerous act, it's advisable to prepare multiple transportation options in advance. The probability of being within the storm's eye is as follows: Southern Ogasawara Islands have a 97% chance, which is expected given they are already experiencing its effects. The northern part has a 67% chance; the deviation will be larger due to the influence of a slightly more westward northward path. Meanwhile, for Honshu's impact, Chiba Prefecture has a 67% chance, Shizuoka and Ibaraki Prefectures have 44%, and Tokyo Metropolis has 33%. The Japan Meteorological Agency indicates the possibility of landfall, but based on these probabilities, it's most likely to proceed without making landfall. The peak of the rain is expected from Monday evening to dawn. With hourly rainfall predictions exceeding 20mm, further intensification is possible if a linear rainband forms. In terms of total rainfall prediction, there are projections that the total amount could surpass the heavy rainfall experienced in Chiba in August 2026. The affected area will span a wide region from Chiba to Tokyo, Saitama, and Kanagawa Prefectures. Although the Silver Week holiday is approaching, it's recommended to refrain from travel or consider evacuating to outside your prefecture as an option.

Considering the whole country, I feel like there were too many disaster-level events this year, but is Tokyo specifically having a good year?

Typhoon No. 25 is currently moving west near the waters south of Chichijima Island, having intensified to 975hPa and is accompanied by a storm surge. Although no rain is audible in Honshu at present, it is expected to rapidly turn into severe weather from tonight through tomorrow and the day after. Due to the typhoon's strength, the impact will be significant even if it doesn't make landfall. Caution should first be directed towards the autumn rain front affecting the islands rather than the typhoon's core. From tomorrow onwards, the forecast for 24-hour rainfall is expected to reach the 200mm line. As this is cumulative rainfall, there is a need for caution against flooding and also to pay close attention to landslides. The probability of the typhoon's direct storm surge impacting Chiba and Ibaraki prefectures is around 50%, and for Tokyo, it's about 35%, indicating a high likelihood of it passing along the coast without making landfall. Even in that scenario, it will merge with the rain front, leading to widespread severe weather. As evidenced by the heavy rains in Chiba and Nagoya, underestimating the situation because it's just rain can lead to severe consequences. Consider this a personal matter and prepare by cleaning surrounding gutters, getting sandbags ready, preventing flooding, and moving important items to higher ground. As it coincides with the first half of Silver Week, if you are visiting nearby Kanto areas, please confirm emergency shelters. In case of flooding, do not assume it's safe just because the water is only ankle-deep; make the decision not to move.

Do you feel like the apparent temperature has dropped? The wind direction has generally shifted to a northerly flow. The reason for the stronger north wind from the autumn rain front, which carries cold air, is the influence of Typhoon No. 25. It is expected to move north after passing Chichijima, and its effects are already beginning to be felt. In the next couple of days, the development of the autumn rain front is a concern due to warm current stimulation, and it is expected to be accompanied by gale-force winds, so we need to pay attention to the impact on the wind. Since it's past mid-September, the lingering summer heat is gradually subsiding. However, with temperatures lower than the average year, the feeling of mid-autumn is strong. Temperatures are forecast to be similar to late October, with the minimum temperature dropping below 20 degrees Celsius. In a typical year, heatstroke advisories are issued around this time, but this year, there's a possibility of cold weather advisories instead. Looking further ahead, the possibility of midsummer day forecasts remains, but the temperature difference between the daytime high and the minimum temperature will be exceptionally large. I personally want to issue a "cold-warm difference allergy" advisory. I pray that everyone manages their health well.

Typhoon No. 25 is expected to develop faster than initially predicted and move north directly over the Ogasawara Islands, likely advancing the estimated arrival time in Honshu by nearly a day. Before the main storm hits, the autumn rain front, fueled by southerly winds, is expected to become active, broadening the area of heavy rainfall. Expect stormy weather shortly after the start of the Silver Week holiday. Temperatures are trending downwards. While the Japan Meteorological Agency is promoting it as a "first autumn feel," some regions will experience temperatures around mid-October, so it's advisable to prepare outerwear suitable for late autumn to early winter. The two-week forecast still predicts mid-summer days, indicating that summer clothing will still be needed. Although the season is transitioning to autumn, preparedness for lingering heat is also important. With insufficient sunshine, dropping temperatures, and potential for intensifying rain, severe weather is anticipated. The forecast for stormy weather in Honshu begins early next week, so remember that it's never too early to start preparing.

Typhoon No. 25 is expected to move west along the periphery of a high-pressure system located to the east of Japan, pass slightly west of the Ogasawara Islands, and then head north. It is highly likely to directly hit the first half of the Silver Week holiday. The autumn rain front has significantly weakened and is affecting the Kanto to Tokai regions. Due to the front along the periphery, strong rain clouds are expected to form immediately from tomorrow, and attention should be paid to the rainfall trends in Tokai and southern Kanto. Overseas forecast models for the typhoon itself are mostly solidifying, with predictions of it heading towards the Ryukyu Islands or Taiwan becoming a rare case, close to zero probability. On the other hand, it's expected to turn back before reaching the Amami Islands and approach Honshu. The Japan Meteorological Agency predicts it will move further east and north, making landfall unlikely, but this does not mean there's a high probability of little rain. Weather modeling suggests it will significantly strengthen the front, and the formation of a linear rainband is also anticipated. The beginning of next week is expected to be very rough, so it would be wise to refrain from going out, even if you're in a holiday mood. Long-term forecasts indicate that the typhoon's influence will cause the front to rapidly move north, resulting in clear skies over a wide area in southern Honshu. While prolonged cloudy weather and insufficient sunshine are concerns, stability is expected to set in at least after next Saturday.

The autumn rain front is entering a downward trend again, with long-term forecasts suggesting it may move south of the Pacific coast. While increased rainfall is expected, the continued rise in sea surface temperatures necessitates caution against heavy downpours, and the approaching typhoon will exacerbate this situation. The Japan Meteorological Agency's official forecast indicates it will move west past the Ogasawara Islands with a storm field until this coming Sunday, five days from now. The issue lies in the subsequent predictions. Statistics from international meteorological agencies suggest a median forecast of the typhoon moving northward, not reaching the Amami Islands, and impacting mainland Japan. Rare case analyses include a prediction of it heading directly for Taiwan, but this is highly unlikely. It is certain to make its closest approach around next Monday or Tuesday. Given the expectation that the autumn rain front will remain over mainland Japan, widespread large-scale flooding is a concern. The heavy rain area is expected to cover the entire region west of mainland Japan, and depending on the front's position, even Hokushinetsu and Tohoku could be affected, meaning nationwide impact. The weather is predicted to be rainy and cloudy for at least a week, so it is necessary to urgently re-examine emergency supplies in anticipation of potential disasters.

The indoor temperature is like this ⬆ right now. I've had sensitive skin since I was a kid, and it often breaks out all over my body like heat rash. Even with medication, it gets intensely itchy when the humidity is high. I don't have a dehumidifier, so I turned on the AC in dehumidify mode, but it's no different than when the windows were wide open... It doesn't make a difference even with the AC on. Actually, it feels cooler outside. It's cooler outside, so turning on the AC doesn't do anything... What should I do in situations like this...?

The other day, we talked about stockpiling, and today I'll give you a little quiz. ・Question Based on the amount of drinking water an adult needs per day, approximately how many liters of drinking water should be stockpiled as a minimum? ① Approx. 6 liters x number of people ② Approx. 7 liters x number of people ③ Approx. 9 liters x number of people The answer is... ③ Approx. 9 liters x number of people It is said that an adult needs about 3 liters of drinking water per day. For the first 72 hours after a disaster, life-saving is the top priority, and it is estimated that it will take 3 days for public support to arrive. Therefore, a minimum of 3 days' worth of drinking water needs to be stockpiled, calculated as 3 liters per person x 3 days = 9 liters of drinking water per person, which is the minimum amount to stockpile. Also, in the event of a large-scale disaster, recovery of lifelines and support are often significantly delayed, so it is recommended to stockpile at least one week's worth of drinking water if possible. In addition, it is said that 10-20 liters of water per person per day are needed for daily living, so not discarding leftover bathwater immediately and saving it can be a preparation for emergencies. (A typical bathtub holds 180-200 liters of water.)